Driven by more advanced new TV features/technologies, and predicted lower average prices on more mainstream models, global TV set shipments should reach 217 million units for full-year 2022, up 3.4% over 2021, market analyst TrendForce forecast this week.
The market research firm estimated full-year 2021 TV unit sales dropped to its previous forecast of 210 million global unit sales, down 3.2% from 2020 volumes, but predicted the category will return to 2020 levels.
TrendForce said the market was under pressure in 2021 as the COVID-19 pandemic started to normalize for a time and stimulus actions dried up. At the same time, LCD panel supplies were low throughout portions of the year, driving up costs of components and, in turn, TV sets for the first time in years in some regions. This served to stifle purchases during the critical fourth quarter selling season.
Limited panel production further forced producers to scale back production of screen sizes that afford less margin, namely the under 46-inch TV segment where popular 32-inch models reside and traditionally drive a large chunk of the overall business.
“The shipment performance of TV brands in 1H21 benefited from COVID-19 economic relief funds in the U.S., driving a continuing boom in North American shipments, according to TrendForce’s investigations. At the same time, TV brands continued to replenish panel inventories, pushing up panel prices,” TrendForce’s statement said. “As the pandemic slowed down in Europe and the United States in [the second half of 2021], life returned to normal and pandemic stimulus no longer applied, challenging demand levels. In addition, rising raw material and freight prices pushed up whole device cost, forcing TV brands to pass costs onto retail pricing.”
TrendForce said TV sales over Black Friday and in China Singles Day, were poor due to high costs leading to a slump in end-user demand and eventually causing TV shipments to decline.
On a positive note, TrendForce said that TV panel supplies and overall production capacity should be ample in 2022. This should counter the severe TV panel price fluctuations of 2021, “while ushering in steady and moderate fluctuations as a replacement.”
“After a sharp revision in TV panel prices in the [second half], this year’s panel pricing is more advantageous to the planning of TV brands,” TrendForce said, adding that “in 2022, the pricing of small-sized panels will be close to panel manufacturers’ cash cost which will help TV brands recapture a larger proportion of small-sized panel shipments.”
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TrendForce predicts the proportion of shipments by screen size below 39-inches will remain at 25%, medium-sized 40-59-inch panels will remain at 55%, and large-sized panels above 60-inch will remain the focus of international brands with market share expected to rise to 20%.
Meanwhile, TrendForce said manufacturers will continue to heavily push their upscale 2022 products, although it predicts OLED TV growth to actually slow down in the year, with an annual growth rate of 27%.
“In 2021, OLED TVs benefited from soaring LCD prices in the previous two years… The price difference between the two has narrowed from a multiple of 4.7 in early 2020 to 1.8 in mid-2021, thereby incentivizing more TV brands to switch to producing OLED TVs when LCD panel supply is limited and driving OLED TV shipments to 6.7 million units in 2021, or 70% growth YoY,” TrendForce said.
The analyst added that “although Samsung Electronics intends to join the white OLED camp and simultaneously launch QD OLED TVs this year, the continuing falling pricing of LCD panels and the price of OLED TV panels (subject to LG Display’s strategy of increasing pricing as opposed to dropping them) may disrupt Samsung Electronics’ rollout of OLED TVs.”
TrendForce predicts that if Samsung Electronics fails to launch spring OLED TV models, its original shipment target of 1.5 million units will inevitably be affected.
“Whether it launches OLED TV models in spring or summer, Samsung Electronics will take advantage of its brand and channel advantages irrespective of other considerations to take the OLED TV market by storm and aim for a market share of 15%,” TrendForce believes.
As for premium LCD TV models, TrendForce said the annual growth rate of Mini LED TVs doubled, and shipments pushed towards 4.5 million units.
Following the launch of TCL’s Mini LCD TVs in 2020, “Samsung launched a series of 50-85-inch mid/high-end 4K and flagship 55-85-inch 8K Mini LED models, with shipments exceeding one million units in the first year, reaching 1.5 million units, and boosting overall Mini LED TV shipments in 2021 to 2.1 million units.”
For 2022, more brands are entering the Mini LED TV space, which should drive overall global Mini LED TV shipments towards 4.5 million units, TrendForce said.
In 2022 Sony will be adding 4K and 8K Mini LED models, joining Samsung, TCL, LG and others in the technology as competition in the premium end of the market intensifies.
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By Greg Tarr
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