Shipments in the U.S. of consumer television sets supporting high dynamic range (HDR) picture enhancements will reach more than 4 million units in 2016 on a path to growth that should reach more than 30 million units by 2020, according to market research released Wednesday by IHS Markit.
Paul Gagnon, IHS Technology director of TV research cautioned that the long-term growth prospects are conditioned on the consumer electronics industry doing an adequate job of properly communicating the benefits of the broader contrast ratio and wider color gamut afforded by the new technology.
“As with many new technologies in the TV market, the ability to introduce them to consumers in a way that communicates the value is crucial to achieving lasting premiums and profits,” Gagnon said.
Read more on the HDR TV sales forecast after the jump:
For the purposes of the study IHS classified HDR compatible TVs as “any sets compatible with basic HDR formats” but compared to sets utilizing standard dynamic range, “will be as much as four times larger.”
Gagnon said that by 2020, IHS Markit expects that nearly all of the 112 million 4K TVs shipped worldwide will be compatible with HDR, but only 30 percent will have true HDR performance capabilities.
The disparity in HDR handling underscores the need for better communication of the varying benefits that each level of HDR support provides.
New display technologies like HDR hold promise for improving average selling prices and profits, but only if the technology and its benefits are communicated well to consumers, according to the research firm.
“In the case of HDR, only some sets have enhanced display performance that can allow the consumer to see the benefit, while the rest will have little discernible difference to consumers, who may become confused about the value of HDR as a result,” Gagnon said.
As HDR sales grow, standard dynamic range (SDR) TVs will shrink rapidly as a segment within the 4K TV market, but should remain the only choice for HD and 1080p resolution TVs. Content producers have elected to include HDR benefits primarily in movies and television programs with 4K (3840×2160 pixel) resolution.
The news isn’t all good for the TV manufacturing industry, however. The market research firm said that although worldwide demand for 4K TVs will continue to grow the overall market for television shipments will decline slightly in 2016.
Gagnon said “the lack of unit volume growth in the total market and continuous price erosion, especially for categories like 4K, is a concern for TV manufacturers and retailers.”
IHS said the global 4K TV market will grow from 55 million units in 2016 to more than 100 million units by 2019, achieving 100 percent share of 50-inch and larger TV shipments by 2019.
As with many new TV technologies like 4K, HDR is featured primarily in larger screen size models, where the additional costs are supported by larger premiums.
More than 80 percent of HDR TV shipments will come from 50-inch and larger screen sizes., IHS believes.
As for the display technology used in consumer televisions, the bulk of industry sales will continue to come from LED-based LCD TVs in 4K, Full HD and HD resolution varieties, however, 4K Ultra HD OLED TVs led by LG Electronics will continue to slowly ramp up share as production costs and prices come down.
Gagnon told HD Guru that “LG is the only major panel maker pursuing mass production, and Samsung is clearly after another path towards Quantum Dot [LED LCD TVs] for large format. I think the recent announcements by several Chinese panel makers – most recently China Star Optoelectronics Technology/TCL – is interesting for the inclusion of OLED in the fab announcements, but the probabilities associated with these plans are still pretty low right now.”
Ink jet printed OLED production will be a key factor going forward for lowering cost of production and increasing yields, he said, “but so too is investment in dedicated OLED mass production for large formats, which is lacking.”
The full IHS TV Sets Market Tracker report with detailed information on TV shipments, by region, technology, size and resolution, is available for sale from IHS.
By Greg Tarr
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