The HD Guru welcomes in 2009 with forecasts on content, pricing and products. You can expect confirmation on a number of these predictions as early as next week when the 2009 International Consumer Electronics Show begins in Las Vegas.
(Photo above is a copy of an invitation emailed to CES registered press to see Panasonics’s 3D HDTV system)
3D HDTV
The digital transition will be completed in February, ending an industry journey that began with the introduction of HDTV displays and broadcasts in 1998. The manufacturers have laid out plans to take HDTV to the next level with 3D HDTV.
2009 will be the first year of a multi-year push to upgrade HDTV to 3D (stereoscopic) television. Panasonic, Sony and other major HDTV makers will demo 3D televisions with a live satellite broadcast of the BCS National Championship game at the International CES next week and at least one HDTV manufacturer will announce plans for production in 2009 of the first Full HD 3D compatible displays. Expect other major players to commit to early 2010 delivery. HD Guru predicts these 3D HDTVs will be supported by at least two movie studios in 2009, with the first products shipping date to coincide with the introduction of 3D Blu-ray players and discs.
Rumors persist Sony will introduce a 3D upgrade to its PS3 Playstation, turning it into PS3D. 3D gaming will be part of a long-term three part 3D strategy by the major HDTV makers that will include console video games, Blu-ray HD movies and (eventually) regular live HD 3D sports broadcasts.
Currently only Mitsubishi and Samsung make 3D capable DLP HDTVs. Samsung also produces two 3D capable plasma TVs, though neither are “Full HD†1080p.
HDTV Pricing
An oversupply of LCD panels will force HDTV prices to continue to drop during the first quarter of 2009, followed by relative price stability.
Currently LCD panel makers, due to the oversupply, are selling their inventory to TV makers, at or below actual cost. This situation will probably last another eight or so weeks as panel makers cut back production to meet lower demand and attempt to raise prices later in the year.
The overall year-to-year savings for HDTV in 2009 will see prices drop an additional 15%- 20% down from the 26%-30% savings we have seen in year to year for the past several years. Why? Component cost reductions on the smaller screen HDTVs, are nearly maxed out with current technology.
Wireless HDTV
The long awaited change over from HDMI cables to wireless HD video and audio will finally arrive in 2009, (a year after my 2008 prediction) allowing consumers to hang a flat panel on the wall connected only to an AC power cable. Wireless will be built-in step up feature for top of the line HDTVs. Wireless upgrade kits will be available as well. The net result, reduced consumer demand for long (relatively) expensive HDMI cables and easier TV installations.
HDTV Goes Green
Plasma HDTV makers will attempt to capture a larger big screen market share by citing lower power consumption with increased brightness and high motion resolution besting their LCD competitors. Expect a wider selection of plasma models from the core producers (Panasonic, Samsung and LG) as well as Hitachi and Pioneer, which will now be sourcing their plasma panels from Panasonic. The mix will include very thin plasma monitors and HDTVs.
Thin HDTVs Will Rule
Expect every major LCD and Plasma flat panel maker to introduce a line thinner flat panel HDTVs in a variety of sizes. They will carry a price premium over thicker displays, leaving the big question: how large of a price premium will the masses be willing to pay for a thinner form factor?
The Motion Resolution Race Continues
Just a few years ago, when all LCD HDTV refreshed at the HD standard of 60 Hz, set makers never talked about “motion blurâ€Â, which is a measure of how much resolution a given display can produce when motion is introduced (such as in football when a receiver is running or a camera panning). Then came 120 Hz LCDs claiming to significantly improve motion resolution (HD Guru’s tests confirmed motion resolution increased from around 330 lines with 60 Hz displays to around 600 lines of resolution for the 120 Hz models). Last Sept., Sony announced a 240 Hz HDTV with delivery expected sometime this year.
For 2009, LG has just announced LCD with a claimed refresh rate of 480 Hz. Expect other vendors to introduce a variety of new 240 Hz (or higher) HDTVs in 2009.
Blu-ray
With street prices dropping below the $200 this past December, you should anticipate a $149 Blu-ray player by year’s end. The big news will come from the content providers. With a significant installed base of players now in consumers hands, HD Guru predicts many Blu-ray movie disc titles will drop to within $5 of DVD standard def version in the first half of 2009. This should result in a spike in Blu-ray disc sales.
Streaming and Widgets
The major TV makers will add many new models with specialized Internet connectivity to provide movie-streaming services such as Netflix and Amazon. Expect new companies to pop up and announce new movie streaming or download services in the first quarter of 2009, all offered as an alternative to DVDs and Blu-ray discs.
In addition, an expansion of Internet services such as photos, weather forecasts and sports and some new ones will appear as another HDTV feature as the top TV makers try to differentiate themselves from the competition and the tier three offerings.
Rear Projection Exclusive
Finally, HD Guru predicts Samsung will drop out of the rear projection (RPTV) market leaving Mitsubishi as the sole maker of HD RPTVs. Expect lower prices for this category, which includes LASER HDTVs.
Copyright ©2009 Gary Merson/HD Guru® All rights reserved. HDGURU is a registered trademark. The content and photos within may not be distributed electronically or copied mechanically without specific written permission. The content within is based upon information provided to the editor, which is believed to be reliable. HD GURU is not responsible for errors or omissions.
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Ready to buy a Pana TH-58PZ800U from Amazon at $2400. I’d like to have it but willing to wait for the new models if price difference is not too large. Willing to pay up to 3,000 or so. What should I do? Thanks a lot.
I don’t know where dlp dude gets his info, but as the Mits rep indicated, I have heard no news about Mits or Samsung getting out of the DLP business. Now with 3D getting hyped, RPTVs that do 3D will be best buys for consumers. The LED Sammmy line is superb and while I haven’t seen Laservue in person, it will also help the RPTV business when they get prices down to LED DLP levels. Right now the 65″ Laservue is absurdly priced. The company that produces the lasers in Australia said that Laser TVs should be very cheap like $1800 for a 60″ DLP, a far cry to what Mits has them priced for. I was going to get a Laservue this summer, but then Mits delayed the release and I heard that they were going to price them to similar sized plasmas, I said forget it and went with a 67″ LED Samsung DLP and haven’t looked back. By the time prices come down, I will probably be looking at a large OLED 3DTV for my next TV purchase.
Hi Christopher,
Please click on my name above and visit our site for the latest 3D info, or copy and paste this link:
http://www.mitsubishi-tv.com/3D
We’re working hard to get more 3D content to market.
Hi “dlp dude”,
I represent Mitsubishi and we are not out of the DLP business. Visit our website (www.mitsubishi-tv.com) this spring and summer and you’ll see we’re hardly giving up on DLP!
Correction: Sim2
!6 bit color processing, infinite contrast ratio from Simm 2 LCD.
The link:
http://investor.dolby.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=363298
Looks like the switch to all digital may be delayed — again.
And Vizio’s $1999, 55″, variable LED backlighting, 240 hz LCD HDTV may be a game changer — if it arrives when (June) and as advertised. It will force further price reductions in conventional LCD HDTVs.
I think we’ll need to see many wireless A/V set top boxes, DVRs, and A/V receivers before we’ll see many wireless HDTVs, and that hasn’t happened yet. It will happen. Maybe next year.
Absolute picture quality:
1) Kuro
2) Panny plasma
3) A650 (not on your list but it should be)
4) Samsung plasma
But let’s be honest. If you are choosing amongst these TVs, it really is splitting hairs to talk about 1-4. I would take any of them in a heartbeat.
It sounds like value matters to you. Accordingly, there’s probably no benefit in getting an extra 5-8″. Prowl your local BB, keep an eye on slickdeals.net and other deal sites b/c you WILL get options under 3k.
Aside from their LCDs I also noticed that Sammy DLP was not mentioned. I’ve seen the LED versions in the 5ft+ size going for 1/2 the price of what you are considering.
All prices will likely drop through the 2nd quarter. But if some big box (that’s not going out of business) offers you a ridiculous deal (50″+ Kuro for $2k), then I would take it.
We’re only 16 days in January, but most of these have already been realized.
– BD players were availabe for $129 during December, and one retailer already started selling $99 BD players as part of a promotion and this week Best Buy will be giving them away with certain television purchases.
-Samsung is done with DLP, and so is Mitsubishi. The only new DLP that’s out is Mitsu’s Laser DLP TV.
-Prices won’t decline that much because their adding features like internet, and access video, and widgets online.
-3D TV was a big part of last year’s Samsung televisions. More companies are making TVs that can do it but it doesn’t matter with almost no content to use with them.
-I forgot who but a company came out with a 480Hz refresh rate TV. I’d rather have a tv that went directly to the channel when i hit the button instead of the lag….or better warranties.j
-The new Bravias surpass the Energy Star 3.0 requirements.
You can read more on http://www.tvlampsnbulbs.com.
Good Morning, I looking 4 Plasma tvs
1,Samsung PN58A650 58″ Plasma HDTV for 2600.00
2,Panasonic Viera TH-58PZ800U 58″ 2800.00
3,Samsung PN63A650 $600to$800for 6in.more-3400.00
4Pioneer KURO PDP-6020FD 400more 3in less 3800.00
I really wanted to stay under 3000.00 but is it worth 400.00 for 5in. or 800.00 for KURO ????
Veiwing distance 18 ft.I like big any 4 will do
Have a PS3 for gaming and movies
Please rate them 1 to 4 ????
WILL PRICE DROP before or AFTER SUPPER BOWL????
I was planning to buy calibration disk
thanks for your time rich
MY Sony KDL 40″ XBR-4 panel went blank after only 10 months. Sony is telling me the factories are so back logged they can not tell me with any certanty when the parts will ship to the authorized repair shop to have it fixed.
Can you give me some insight as to the current situation as it relates to inverter and panels?
What is your opinion on philips lcd tv’s especially on the 42TA648BX/37 model? Does philips make good tvs?
when will it drop again?!? it seems that somehow people are affording the new tv sets. drop, please, drop.
My 2009 Predictions:
Blu Ray disks will see some major price drops if Sony wants to actually capture the market. The upconversion of SD DVDs is getting good enough that many consumers don’t care to spend the extra dollars to gain what to them seems to be minimal advantage over an upconverted SD DVD.
With the economy in the toilet sales are going to plumment for the 50″ and higher displays with the majority of sales going for the lower cost displays and thoughts of “I’ll move this one to the bedroom/kid’s room when I can afford the big one”. This will push the prices on the larger displays down to eliminate existing inventories and manufacturing will slow to a crawl creating a shortage of larger displays as we approach 2010.
More consumer electronics retailers will follow the lead of CC and file for bankruptcy. At least one of the “name brands” will also file.
I have been a 3D nut since 1952 and have about 5,000 stereo slides to prove it. A lot of us nuts have shutter glasses, but with all the talk and hype about HDTV and Blu Ray no one seems to be pushing the DVD distributors to release 3D content for shutter glasses viewing. Instead, some of them seem to be considering anaglyph presentation on DVDs of stereoscopic movies. Please tell me I’m hallucinating.