Factory shipments of TVs of all types to the U.S. market declined an estimated 5.8% in 2021 to 46.6 million units from 49.4 million in COVID-lockdown accelerated 2020, according to the CTA’s January 2022 Consumer Technology Forecasts.

As the global pandemic continues to abate, and the effects of supply chain disruptions linger keeping prices unusually high, the industry association is further forecasting a fall-off from the record U.S. TV demand year of 2020 to continue to drive down overall unit shipments 13.3% throughout 2022 to 40.4 million units.

The CTA said that although brand competition is expected to re-intensify this year, driving prices somewhat lower, the heavy rate of upgrading that occurred in 2020 will contribute to weaker demand overall in 2022.

On a factory revenue basis, CTA projects 78% of all video-product revenues to come from digital displays in 2022 at a forecast $18.5 billion by year-end, down 11.8% from an estimated $21 billion in 2021, which was down $300 million from 2020.

Meanwhile, the January 2022 sales & forecast data indicated the percentage of 4K TV units dipped to 67.4% of overall U.S. TV volume from 69% in 2020. 2021 4K unit shipments declined to 31.4 million, from 34.1 million in 2020. For 2022, CTA is forecasting U.S. 4K unit shipments to decline another 9% to 28.6 million, representing 61.3% of overall U.S. TV volume.

“The U.S. TV market—and consumers—remain focused on where the value is: large screen (50- to 70-inch) 4K UHD LCD TVs. However, because of supply chain concerns, manufactures have had to focus more of their priorities on large full featured TVs, where the margins are best. Until costs decrease, many consumers may hold off upgrading the value televisions in their living rooms,” CTA said.

Within the overall TV unit volume numbers, however, CTA recorded pockets of growth from very-large-screen, 8K and OLED-based flat-panel displays, as well as front projectors.

Although 8K TV factory shipments are expected to see 184% growth in 2022, the overall volume number will remain quite low at 267,000 units, up from an estimated 94,000 units shipped in the U.S., CTA data suggests.

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The OLED TV segment will be among the biggest winners in 2022, rising 27% to a predicted 2.3 million units in 2022 for 1.8 million in 2021. OLED shipments climbed 24% in 2021 from 1.45 million in 2020.

The CTA predicts that with new players coming into the OLED market this year, the display category should see factory unit volume growth in the U.S. to 4.6 million units by 2025.

For this year, CTA said larger OLED models measuring 65-inches and up, will capture the lion’s share of annual unit volume (1.6 million in 2022), even as smaller screen models enter the field to appeal to video gamers.

“Annual shipment volumes for OLED TVs through the forecast horizon will help stabilize revenues for the U.S. TV market close to $19 billion,” CTA said.

U.S. OLED TV factory revenue reached dropped 17% to $2.98 billion in 2021, but is forecast to rise 11% to $3.3 billion in 2022.

In other segments, CTA said:

  • Overall smart TV volume declined 9% to 39.2 million units in 2021 and is forecast to drop 10% in 2022 to 35.8 million, to represent 87% of overall TV shipments.
  • Front projector shipments rose 10% in 2021 to 600,000 units and are forecast to climb another 15% to 690,000 in 2022.
  • HDMI 2.1 Enabled TVs shipments in the U.S. rose 718% to 3.8 million units in 2021, and are forecast to rise 67% to 7.5 million in 2022.
  • TVs with integrated NextGenTV (ATSC 3.0) tuners represented 11% of all TVs shipped in 2021.

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By Greg Tarr

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