Predictions For 2010

January 2nd, 2010 · 22 Comments · 3D HDTV, Blu-ray Players, Blu-ray Titles, DLP, LCD Flat Panel, LED LCD Flat Panels, Plasma, Satellite TV

Just Posted At HDGURU3D.com- LG’s 2010 3D HDTV Details Leaked

Just Posted At HDGURU3D.com- Our 3D HDTV Primer (1/2/10)


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(January 2, 2010) 2010 marks the beginning of the 3D home video era. While in many ways it is similar to the introduction of HDTV in late 1998-1999,  in others it’s quite different.

In 1998 and early 1999 TV makers introduced their first HDTVs. The set makers generally limited the initial offerings to one model per company. The changes needed to make a display high definition were huge, requiring modifications to picture tubes, far wider bandwidth circuitry, the incorporation of up-conversion technology and other expenses. Prices ranged from $9000 for a 34″ Sony direct view model to $10,000 for a Philips 64″ rear projector. Programming was limited to a handful of network shows in 1999 and most of 2000. The first full time HD channel, HD Net launched Sept 6, 2001.

The cost delta to enable 3D capability within a HDTV will be small, especially when compared to the standard to high definition switch. 3D requires a high refresh rate (generally 120 Hz for plasma and 240 Hz for LED and LCD), the display’s ability to send a sync signal to 3D glasses, and additional signal processing.

On to the predictions.

3D Full HDTV Prices Will Be Low

1. HG Guru predicts 3D ready versions of flat panels will sell for around the same as their 2D 2009 counterparts, with initial street prices beginning around $1299 for a 40″ 3D ready 240 Hz edge lit LED LCD. By comparison, a 2009 Samsung 40″ 120 Hz Edge Lit LED Samsung sells today on Amazon for $1249.99.

Nearly 50 3D HDTVs To Be Available

2. HD Guru predicts vendors will offer multiple Full HD 3D models in their 2010 lines with an industry total of 40-50 different models using plasma, LCD, LED LCD, DLP and front projection by year’s end.

3D Programming and Content Will Arrive Quickly

3. 3D programming will arrive much faster in 2010 than HDTV did back in the late nineties and early 2000s with dozens of Blu-ray discs, Playstation 3D games, and a full time 3D DirecTV channel. HD Guru predicts one or more cable providers will have a 3D channel before the end of 2010. In addition to movies and games, 3D broadcasts of sporting events will commence.

Low Cost 3D Blu-ray Players

4. HD Guru predicts 3D Blu-ray players will be available from every 3D TV maker, priced about $100-$150 higher their 2D counterparts.

LED HDTVs To Get Local Dimming

5. New thin, edge lit LED LCD HDTVs will arrive from virtually all big screen LED TV makers. New designs will provide edge lit “local dimming” for the first time, for better blacks and better contrast, along with other picture enhancements.

Thin LED HDTVs in 60″ and Above Screen  Sizes

6. TV Vendors will begin to sell thin LED edge-lit models in 60″ and larger screen sizes.

3D Compatible Surround Sound Receivers

7.  All major audio companies will introduce 3D compatible surround sound receivers in 2010. Consumers will learn their pre-2010 models will not be able to handle HDMI 3D signals, requiring the use of external switching and legacy sound formats such as Dolby Digital (instead of  Dolby TrueHD) or the purchase of a new SS receiver.

Mobile Digital TV Arrives Within Portable Devices

8. Mobile Digital TVs will finally arrive with a number of 21st century Watchman-type products as well as inclusion within other screened portable devices.

Home 3D HDTV Will Succeed

9. 3D HDTV will be declared a success with faster consumer adoption than HDTV in year one.

Glasses Free 3D  Will Arrive

10. Our final prediction, a glasses-free Full HD 3D consumer computer monitor and/or laptop computer will be announced before year’s end, though it will be designed for a single viewer.

HD Guru Wishes Our Readers a Happy New Year

Just Posted At HDGURU3D.com- Our 3D HDTV Primer

To learn more about choosing an HDTV please click this link.

For a list of the Best HDTVs under $1000 please click this link.

For a list of the 10 Best HDTVs please click this link

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Edited by Michael Fremer

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22 Comments so far ↓

  • millhowz

    Back in 2008 when TI started showing off 3D displays, they also showed off a feature called “dualview”… however, I haven’t heard of it since… anyone aware of LCD or plasma sets incorporating a similar function?

  • TRT

    3D….Get the money from all of the suckers as quickly as possible so we can move on!

  • Ken

    Will be an update on the website soon? I’m most interested in: the new technology introduced at CES (tv’s, glasses, blu-ray) , consumer reactions at the show, any ballpark price points from the manufacturers and whether there will be any converter boxes announced for those who purchased hd tv’s in the last couple years (including info on mitsubishi’s box for their existing dlp’s). I’m also interested to know whether or not there will be new audio receivers (or formats) to be released as well to compliment the 3D technology.

  • James

    I really don’t care for this 3D nonsense, and I tend to be an early adopter. I just want a flat panel TV that can beat the picture quality on my Sony direct-view XBR960 from 2004. The Kuro is close, but not quite there. I don’t know how 3D will help my quest.

  • Axiom

    I just wanna watch a movie on a HDTV without all the crap the TV comes with.

  • Mark

    First, we wait for the 65″ Panasonic V10 plasma, promised in August, delayed until October, then in short supply and backordered to the point sellers are getting more than list price. It’s “almost” Kuro, but close enough. Then, CES comes a few months later and the 65″ V10 is already an old model. Good news, the blacks are promised to be better for 2010, but then there’s no 65″ with these Infinite Pro Blacks, UNLESS you get 3D, Skype and a few more bells and whistles. Panasonic, just make us a 65″ Kuro already, even a monitor version. Make it 3D “ready” so you can sell us a black box later.

  • Doc and Tech

    Just read somewhere that at best by the end of 2010 at most three Blu Ray 3D titles will be available. I don’t know about you, but there are still many titles I am dying to own on regular old blu ray that have yet to be released and they are already ramming 3D down our throats.

    The adoption rate of regular blu ray alone is not that high, DVD still rules the roost.

    If you think about it though, perhaps the strategy of the industry is to give people another reason to buy blu ray, as the players will be backwards compatible to 2D blu ray. But what about the TV’s???

  • Axiom

    CES 2010 Best in Show Award: Panasonic VT25

  • autoboy

    2010 Prediction:

    Someone will invent 2D glasses so the rest of us can watch our TV without getting a headache.

  • Mark

    ESPN just announced they’re creating a 3D network also starting with the first game of the World Cup.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=4796555

  • Oat07

    Another thing that I do not understand is why are people willing to accept image quality lost in order to view 3D material. Unless I am missing some facts, the latest 3D glasses are still like sunglasses and degrade the picture (color, contrast, etc.). This is really bad. Imagine after tweaking the colors and contrast you set down to watch 3D with the required glasses with half the colors and contrast. If someone knows more please speak.

  • Tzedekh

    Isn’t HDMI 1.4 necessary for Blu-ray 3D? If so, how will the PlayStation 3 be able to support it? Doesn’t it have an HDMI 1.3 port?

    No 1.4 is not necessary. The maximum bit rate allowed under the HDMI 1.3 standard is 10.2 gigabits per second (Gbps) BTW same max bit rate as HDMI 1.4. Maximum bit rate for FHD3D is 8.8 Gbps (source: spokesperson at HDMI.org). Whether a 1.3 or 1.4 device can handle 8.8 Gbps is dependent on the design. I.E Sony says its HDMI 1.3 SS receivers can’t handle 3D HDMI signals.

    In other words, HDMI 1.4 capability does not mean the device can handle Full 3D HDTV signals. Many HDMI 1.4 features and capabilities are optional. Don’t assume anything, check with the device manufacturer for the 1.4 features its product can perform.

    HD Guru

  • Clint

    We would still like to know how important HDMI 1.4 is going to be for 3D. The HDMI consortium announced support for 3D in the newly released 1.4 spec however we are yet to find out how is it going to enhance the experience for people with the following HDMI 1.4 components (AV Receiver, BLU-RAY player and 3D HDTV).
    HD GURU, any thoughts on this?

    The HDMI 1.4 standard includes new functionality for HDMI devices. However, to date, the spec has not been made public, it is only available to HDMI licensees.

    Our 3D HDTV primer (hdguru3d.com) mentions some of the future functionality.

    We would like to emphasize many of the functions of 1.4 are optional. Therefore a company that claims its new product is “1.4″ ready is meaningless statement. You must check the functionality of each device to learn what it is and isn’t enabled to do.

    HD Guru

  • Chance Stevens

    I’d like to respectfully disagree. 3D HDTV will NOT be coming in 2010. I’m willing to be $5,000 on it. OLED, Wireless HDMI, and even HD on demand are all seldom used by people in the US and the world.

    People are not going to buy new HDTVs after they JUST bought one. Most people are buying HDTVs under $600, this means that it will take at least 2 or 3 years before the sets drop to that price.

    The glasses are a big issue for a bunch of people. They make people dizzy and aren’t worth the expense.

    Lastly there is no content. No one has formally announced any channels or how to watch them, or how much extra they are going to cost. DirecTV is already raising prices so who knows how many people would even want to pay the gouging premium they want for the one 3D channel they are rumored to launch.

    Good fairy tail, but I’ll still with my prediction that 3D gets a lot of pumping but no traction in 2010.

    And…for the record, 3D ready HDTVs have been out since 2007 so your prediction on 50 models is off by a big margain.

  • JimO368

    I agree with Forkboy on this, I guess I can put my HDTV out on the curb and hope someone will take it away. I think 3D is going to be a niche within a niche, I can’t see there being enough programming to make it fly, nor can I see millions of people sitting in their living rooms with goofy glasses on. As Roger Ebert says, 3D has always been a distraction from story.

  • Gerry

    Great stuff. Just a note, the links at the bottom of the article do not work, ie 10 best HDTVs, they just send you back to this page.

    Links Fixed. Thanks.
    HD Guru

  • General Jim

    I hope sharkboy and lavagirl come out on blu ray 3d

  • Ben

    Sharp has made 3D laptops that work without glasses for years, so congrats on getting one right already!

    Perhaps we should been more specific. We’re talking 1920×1080 Full HD, not the 1024 x 768 resolution Sharp offered in its laptops . Thanks for catch. We’ll stick with our original prediction.

    HD Guru

  • Ken

    I just bought a new Denon AVR-2310Ci — it doesn’t even arrive until next week! It was bought in preparation for a new 3D HDTV sometime early this year.

    I guess I’m one of those consumers who learn their pre-2010 models will not be able to handle HDMI 3D signals! Very disappointed to learn this, though.

  • Randy

    So we need new receivers as well? I just bought an Onkyo TX-SR707, so that is bad news for me….it appears that HDMI 1.4 is coming out too….very frustrating…

  • forkboy1965

    So this means what? I shouldn’t bother to purchase a new television for the t.v. room?

    I was looking to finally pull the trigger on one, when suddenly 3D is everywhere.

    And then what? Will 3D lead to non-glass-wearing 3D t.v.’s and I’ll have wasted my money on the regular 3D version?

    I’m beginning to think it’s time to cancel cable and learn to read again. This constant march of progress is nice at so many levels, but it makes expensive products obsolete so quickly and I personally can’t afford to purchase new t.v. every three or four years.

  • Tzedekh

    Why no 240 Hz for plasma? Are you saying that we’ll have to put up with 3:2 pulldown to get 3D in plasma? When will Panasonic learn not to hobble its U.S. plasma offerings, particularly in the midrange?

    Please don’t “read into” our predictions. We will learn the details about Panasonic’s 3D plasmas (and other 3D displays) next week at the 2010 CES, including refresh rates for 2D and 3D content and report them to you in our CES show articles.

    HD Guru

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